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Episode Breakdown

A Conversation with the Creator of the 4% Rule​
(0:00) Intro — the most famous rule in retirement planning gets a visit from the man who wrote it
(2:30) Interview: Bill Bengen explains what the 4% rule is, how it’s changed, and why it might be holding you back​
(38:00) Listener Questions: Inflation, RMDs, time horizons, and whether a 5% withdrawal rate is actually safer than we think

​Listen on Spotify | Listen on Apple​

Retirement Headline: We Sat Down With Bill Bengen — And He Brought Charts

You’ve heard it a hundred times:

But have you ever heard it straight from the guy who invented it?

In this week’s podcast episode, we sit down with Bill Bengen, the originator of the 4% rule — and he’s got news:

It’s not really a “rule.”​
It was originally just a worst-case scenario back-tested using historical data. Over time, it got adopted as a rule of thumb… and then canonized into something it was never meant to be.

Since his 1994 paper, Bengen’s revised research puts the safe withdrawal rate closer to 4.7% — and even 5.5% in today’s conditions.

And with his new book launching August 5th, Bill’s trying to correct the narrative. His goal? Help real retirees custom-build a withdrawal plan, not follow a rigid, fear-based formula.

Highlights From the Interview:

The “Rule” Origin:​
The 4% figure came from someone retiring in 1968 — the worst sequence of return in his data set (high inflation + bad markets).

The Evolution:

• Started with 2-asset portfolios (large-cap stocks + bonds)
• Then added small-caps (2006), international, micro-caps, T-bills
• Latest research lands at 4.7%, with best-case scenarios over 11%!

Costs:​
Bengen assumed zero investment fees in his research (think index funds). Advisor fees? He considers that a budget line item.

Risk ≠ Volatility:​
A 100% stock portfolio might perform best on paper, but real retirees under-spend due to fear. That’s a failure too.

Listener Q&A:

• What if your retirement is only 15 years? You can probably spend more.
• What if RMDs force you to withdraw more than 4%? It’s okay — by that point, your safe rate is likely higher.
• What if you retired in 2000? You’d still be okay with a 5.6% withdrawal, even through two major market crashes.

Quick Tip:

The 4% rule is a starting point, not a finish line.​
Your timeline, goals, asset mix, and flexibility matter more than any single number. Want a sneak peek of what 130 of Bill’s black-and-white charts look like in color?

Resources Mentioned

• ​​Click here to learn more about Bill and preorder his book, A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More
• ​Click here to order my book, Retirement Starts Today: Your non-financial guide to an even better retirement

That's it for our three hundred and eighty-fourth installment of "Every Day is Saturday." As always, I read (and usually reply to) every listener email. Got a question? Hit reply—you just might hear your name on the show.

Enjoy your “Saturday,”
​Benjamin Brandt